Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 192.150459 229.646787 274.860638 334.129300 410.878534 508.476693 6.445801e+02
2025-08-31 142.068512 184.029315 240.402260 323.958945 448.830817 635.928799 9.532900e+02
2025-09-07 123.611045 170.426395 238.954741 351.476478 542.252042 875.761043 1.566931e+03
2025-09-14 105.968555 152.723391 225.549946 354.704518 596.569798 1077.473977 2.271941e+03
2025-09-21 94.706964 141.765158 219.126890 366.123177 668.096166 1349.246812 3.398631e+03
2025-09-28 83.981298 129.445812 207.411309 363.999124 711.410266 1586.173125 4.738659e+03
2025-10-05 79.946762 127.396092 212.815720 395.971465 842.367562 2136.881906 8.146317e+03
2025-10-12 75.687045 124.128828 215.125547 422.055141 972.568015 2807.532726 1.405697e+04
2025-10-19 71.272508 119.821748 214.463542 441.262830 1095.391135 3592.400557 2.435200e+04
2025-10-26 66.705785 114.525127 210.749061 452.145001 1200.924786 4452.142959 4.198397e+04
2025-11-02 62.092876 108.498592 204.415445 454.707789 1282.664880 5334.485325 7.159509e+04
2025-11-09 57.092148 101.085927 193.876730 443.427133 1311.606503 5997.143041 1.120093e+05
2025-11-16 52.416905 94.010658 183.499099 431.489972 1339.477884 6772.961659 1.887669e+05
2025-11-23 48.262892 87.571119 173.679062 418.954820 1360.993272 7595.014726 3.339239e+05
2025-11-30 47.495590 88.139943 180.362738 457.808323 1632.897337 11314.633975 1.910282e+06
2025-12-07 44.947935 84.566502 176.431313 462.438471 1753.044417 14142.175295 1.059078e+07
2025-12-14 43.181229 82.505531 175.949015 478.542436 1949.963151 19078.385109 1.032269e+09
2025-12-21 40.745254 78.680583 170.362936 475.552183 2041.534782 23181.582944 NaN
2025-12-28 40.410076 79.605855 177.426332 520.827750 2481.871259 39039.953117 NaN
2026-01-04 39.681517 79.524589 181.773775 558.048549 2930.027747 64932.322130 NaN
2026-01-11 38.626122 78.542262 183.445289 585.614900 3356.987565 105761.261128 NaN
2026-01-18 37.272632 76.690457 182.320743 601.290478 3717.908590 165010.669628 NaN
2026-01-25 35.693000 74.125218 178.711477 604.988126 3981.871738 242598.082372 NaN